Afghanistan needs to win to secure a spot in the Super Four

Afghanistan needs to win to secure a spot in the Super Four

The group stage of the Asia Cup 2025 has entered a tense phase, with only a few games remaining to determine the Super 4 lineup. If Afghanistan wins, all three teams will finish on four points, with Afghanistan progressing on net run rate.

Afghanistan’s journey in the Asia Cup has taken an unexpected turn. After a strong showing in last year’s T20 World Cup, they were seen as clear contenders for the Super Four. But heading into their final group match, they now face a must-win situation following a disappointing loss to Bangladesh. Their batting, which looked promising against Hong Kong, has suddenly come under scrutiny.

In their opening win, Sediqullah Atal and Azmatullah Omarzai were the standout performers. But against Bangladesh, Atal fell for a golden duck, and the rest of the lineup failed to step up. Omarzai did his part, smashing some massive sixes, but Afghanistan’s middle order needs more support especially now, with Sri Lanka up next, a team that’s looked sharp throughout the tournament.

Sri Lanka have been disciplined with the ball and mostly solid with the bat, barring a late scare against Hong Kong. Ideally, they wouldn’t want their qualification to hinge on this game, but if they lose, a three-way tie on points could unfold. In that case, Afghanistan would qualify automatically, and Sri Lanka’s fate would depend on net run rate.

The math is simple but tricky. If Sri Lanka is chasing 160, they must score at least 93 to stay ahead of Bangladesh’s NRR. If they’re defending 160, they’ll need to stretch Afghanistan’s chase to at least 11.3 overs. These are the bare minimums and Sri Lanka will back themselves to hit those marks.

Sri Lanka Probable XI: Pathum Nissanka, Kamil Mishara, Kusal Mendis(w), Kusal Perera, Kamindu Mendis, Charith Asalanka(c), Dasun Shanaka, Maheesh Theekshana, Wanindu Hasaranga, Dushmantha Chameera, Nuwan Thushara

Afghanistan Probable XI: Sediqullah Atal, Rahmanullah Gurbaz (w), Mohammad Nabi, Ibrahim Zadran, Gulbadin Naib, Karim Janat, Azmatullah Omarzai, Rashid Khan(c), AM Ghazanfar, Noor Ahmad, Fazalhaq Farooqi